How much did Trump improve on his performance with Latino men relative to 2020? This is an important place to begin this discussion, as there is a rather wide range of estimates of just how well Trump did with this sub-group of the electorate.
Latino males have been the most discussed sub-group of the electorate among many that shifted toward Trump in 2024. Despite making up a relatively small number of voters across key battleground states (including only 6% of eligible voters in Georgia), the majority of the blame for Democrats’ rough performance in 2024 has been directed at Latinos, specifically Latino men. In this post, I dig into the data to provide some perspective on the potential factors that led more Latino men to vote for Trump in 2024 than in the last election.
While President-elect Trump increased his support among Latino men this cycle, he did not get the majority of this sub-group in 2024. Support for Trump was highest among Latino men under 40 at 48%, 20% of whom were first time voters in 2024. Trump’s performance was driven by the salience of the economy to Latino men and Trump’s misinformation-fueled campaign that falsely blamed immigrants for the economic challenges many Latino men are facing.
Trump’s support among Latino men was highest among Latinos under 40
How much did Trump improve on his performance with Latino men relative to 2020? This is an important place to begin this discussion, as there is a rather wide range of estimates of just how well Trump did with this sub-group of the electorate. I put a lot of caution on the National Exit Poll’s estimate of 55% for Trump among Latino men, given that similar to the national preelection polls, it is not designed to capture nuances among sub-groups of the electorate and has been critiqued in the past for its inability to fully capture the Latino vote. Although the majority of Latino men did not vote for Trump, it is clear that Trump significantly improved his performance among Latino men.
According to the 2024 American Electorate Voter Poll, a survey I reference throughout the rest of this article, 43% of Latino men supported former President Trump—significantly lower than the estimate from the National Exit Poll but much higher than what Harris and Democrats were hoping for. When we note that 38% of Latino men supported a Republican congressional candidate in the 2022 election, this represents a modest yet significant 5% increase in GOP support over the past two years.
The 43% for Trump among Latino men is 11% higher than the 32% of Latinas who voted for Trump based on this poll. This is consistent with the 10% gender gap among Latino voters in 2022, when 28% of Latinas supported a Republican congressional candidate. The comparison of Trump’s support across both gender groups of Latinos to the 2022 election suggests that there was a similar movement among Latinas and Latinos toward the Republican Party over that period.
One of the more interesting trends within the data is that this gender difference in the presidential vote among Latinos varied tremendously by age. While there was no gender difference among Latinos who are age 60 or older (62% Harris for both groups), there was a 10% difference among Latinos between the ages of 40 and 59. The most significant gender gap was among young Latino voters, with 48% of Latino men under 40 voting Trump compared to 32% of Latinas within this age group.
The difference in support for Trump among Latino men across age groups is striking and adds an important nuance to discussions about what increasing support for Trump among men might mean for the future. There is a steady decrease in Trump support with age, with 48% among Latino men under 40, 40% among Latino men between the ages of 40 and 59, and 37% reported among Latino males who are 60 and over. If the GOP is able to maintain this support among young Latino men as they age, it would be critical for future elections. However, given that one-in-five Latino men in this age group voted for the first time this November, they are far from having a solidified relationship with the Republican Party. This gives Democrats hope that this pivotal subgroup may be open to supporting them in the future.
Public policy was the driving force for Latino men, not gender bias or discrimination
According to the 2024 American Electorate Voter Poll, the cost of living/inflation, economy/jobs, housing costs, and health care costs were the top four priorities for Latino men in 2024. Furthermore, although a slim majority of Latino men believed that Democrats would be better than Republicans at addressing their top priority, Latino men were 8% more likely than Latinas to believe that Republicans would be best at addressing their top priority.
The economy’s importance to Latino men, combined with the perception that Trump and Republicans are better at reducing costs and creating higher-paying jobs, was clearly a key factor in shaping their voting behavior this cycle. However, it is important to put this into context. Nearly a third of construction workers in the country are Latino, a labor force hit hard during COVID-19 closures. Furthermore, we found in our academic research that a third of Latino families lost their business/were in jeopardy of losing their business, with Latino men being more likely to experience economic stress during the pandemic.
Many of these men have struggled to recover from these economic hardships and likely remembered these experiences when they cast their ballot this cycle. Although the economy gradually reopened under Biden as vaccines became available, many Latino men who faced financial challenges during the closures may blame the Biden administration and Democrats, partly because states with Democratic governors implemented stricter stay-at-home orders compared to Republican-led states.
The other policy issue that had an impact on Latino men’s support of Trump is immigration, as immigration and immigrants were especially connected to the economy during this election cycle. Immigrants have consistently been blamed for economic downturns in the United States across our nation’s history, and the Republican Party effectively employed this tactic—blaming immigrants for challenges facing the country, including access to jobs, low wages, and affordable housing. Recent survey research has found that 74% of Americans were exposed to misinformation that “immigrants are taking jobs and causing an increase in unemployment for people born in the U.S.” Despite extensive research demonstrating that immigration boosts economic growth, linking immigrants and immigration policy to the economic challenges faced by Latino families resonated during this election cycle.
Let’s be clear: The overwhelming majority of Latino men oppose mass deportations and other aspects of Trump’s immigration agenda. By wide margins, in fact, Latino male voters support immigration policy that includes a path to citizenship for immigrants who have lived in the U.S. for some time (74%), as well as allowing Latino citizens and permanent residents to sponsor immediate family members more easily to obtain visas (77%). In short, Latino men do not support Trump’s immigration policy agenda.
Some have speculated that Latino men may have moved toward Trump and away from Harris due to gender discrimination. The 2024 American Electorate Voter Poll asked respondents directly how they felt about Harris potentially becoming the first woman elected president. As shown in the figure below, 12% of Latino men cited Harris being the first woman president as a major reason for supporting the Democratic nominee, with an additional 22% identifying it as a contributing factor. In comparison, 6% said this was a major reason for voting for Trump, and 11% indicated it contributed to their opposition to Harris. Overall, Harris’ gender led to a net gain of 17% for Harris among Latino men.
Attitudes toward the parties and contact rates
President-elect Trump’s support among Latino men is consistent with this sub-group’s views about the Democratic and Republican Parties. When asked to evaluate how much each party cares about the Latino community, a higher percentage of Latino men believe the GOP “cares a great deal” about the Latino community relative to Latinas in the sample (38% compared to 28%). Latino men are also 8% less likely than Latinas to believe that the GOP and Trump are being hostile toward the Latino community (27% compared to 38%). Age is again important, as 20% of Latino men under 40 believe that Trump and the GOP is being hostile towards Latinos, much lower than older Latinos. Latino men between 18 and 39 are also the most likely to believe that the GOP “cares a great deal” about the Latino community (44% compared to only 25% among Latino men 60 and older).
Voter perceptions of political parties can be influenced by outreach efforts, such as being contacted to consider registering to vote or participating in elections. Nearly half (45%) of Latino men reported that nobody had contacted them this cycle—not the parties, a candidate, or any other potential mobilization agent. This is important, as a lack of direct outreach can lead to a perception that their voice does not matter. Although Latino men who were contacted reported higher contact from Democrats in 2024 (32% compared to 24%), Republicans improved their outreach to Latino men this cycle, which likely had an impact on their voting behavior.
The door remains open for Democrats to bring Latino men back into the tent
Driven mostly by economic concerns, Latino men, and particularly young Latino men, were more likely to vote for former President Trump in 2024 than in previous election cycles. This group of voters represents an audience Republicans aim to strengthen connections with, and Trump’s choice of Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as secretary of state is likely a symbolic gesture aligned with the party’s strategy to achieve that goal.
Despite these challenges, there are reasons for Democrats to be optimistic about winning back Latino men, as highlighted in this data. Support for Trump is highest among young Latino men, many of whom were voting in a presidential election for the first time. As a result, this group is still shaping their opinions about political parties. Additionally, Latino men under 40 hold generally favorable views of the Democratic Party, with 60% believing that Harris and the Democrats “care a great deal” about the Latino community—a figure just 3% lower than their Latina counterparts in the same age group.
Most importantly, Latino men overwhelmingly support progressive policies on a variety of issues. This includes 84% who either support “a woman’s right to abortion and believe it should be legal” or oppose government interference in a woman’s ability to make that decision, even if they personally oppose abortion. In contrast, only 16% believe abortion should be illegal in all cases. Additionally, a strong majority of Latino men back initiatives such as expanding clean energy investments, passing a new voting rights act, and closing tax loopholes while increasing taxes on corporations earning over $1 billion in profit. Latino men do not support Trump’s overall policy agenda. Their mandate for the incoming Trump administration should be understood as specifically focused on creating higher-paying jobs and reducing the cost of goods.
Democrats must seek leaders within their party who understand the nuances of sub-groups that did not align with them in this election. Regarding Latino men, Senator-elect Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), who significantly outperformed Harris in Arizona, is an excellent candidate to lead these efforts. Gallego has highlighted that Latino men are often socialized to prioritize providing for and protecting their families—values that emphasize the importance of economic and immigration issues to this group. This perspective aligns with research indicating that nearly 60% of Latino men feel pressure to provide for their families, and 40% report pressure to succeed at work. Similarly, Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.), who won a tightly contested border district, demonstrated the effectiveness of a balanced immigration policy that included border enforcement. The party that advances policies supporting Latinos in achieving financial stability for their families is likely to secure the lion’s share of their votes in future elections.
