by Alex Gonzalez
These are three charts showing how Latinos voted state-by-state. Based on CNN exit polls, it appears that across states, Trump performed better than Romney with the exception of Florida and California.
Though Trump won Florida with only 1.5% margin or about 170,000 votes, in 2008 and 2012, 40% of the Latino vote went to Mitt Romney, Trump got only 35% of the Latino vote. This could underscore the decline of older Cuban vote that continues to shrink and younger native Cuban-Americans pivoting away from the GOP. Thus, it will be very interesting to see more exit polls showing the breakdown of Latino Vote in Florida between Puerto Ricans and Cubans, and other Latino groups.
With the exception of California and Florida where Trump dropped 5-points from 29% to 25% and in California where dropped 4-points, in Nevada, Colorado, Arizona and Texas performed and average of 4-points better than Romney. And if you are not convinced about the accuracy of the exit polls, as some left-leaning polling Latino groups like Latino Decision claim, you can look at the how Latinos voted for candidates for the US Senate.
In Arizona, for example, Trump got 31% of the Latino Vote but Sen. McCain won 40% of the Latino vote. Thus, it is clear that there was 1/3 of the Latino Vote for the Republican ticket. In Nevada, support for Republican candidates Joe Heck got 28% of the Latino Vote while Trump received 29%.
You can cherry-pick the partisan argument that Latino Decision, but fact is that there is a correlation between the number of Latinos who voted for Trump and the Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate showing that Trump did better than Mitt Romney among Latinos nationally and state-by-state.
It will be only until May/June 2017 when the U.S. Census release the detailed data showing the actual numbers of how many Latinos voted. Only then, we will know if there was a real “surge” of Latinos voting.
Alex Gonzalez is a political Analyst and Political Director for Latinos Ready To Vote. Comments to [email protected] or @AlexGonzTXCA
